Nigerian Universities Research Topics: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL IN THE REDUCTION OF POVERTY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

ABSTRACT

One of the major focuses of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is agricultural development and the eradication of poverty and hunger. A significant percentage of the population in Africa lives in the rural areas with agriculture as their major preoccupation, but these group of the populace are barely or not informed about new techniques and improved technologies in agriculture.

There is no gain emphasizing the importance of education in driving home these new techniques and improved technological methods in agriculture; open and distance learning is a mode of learning that can render this education accessible to the generality of the populace regardless of time and space. ODL has proven to be effective in the acquisition of skills and knowledge for agricultural productivity as in the case of sugar cane farming techniques in Kenya etc and increasing the income of the farmers. These has expose the indispensability of ODL in achieving the MDGs, vis a vis, reducing poverty and hunger, therefore, this project attempts to shed more light on the potentials and the role of open and distance learning in achieving this major focus of the Millennium Development Goals.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page i

Certification iii

Dedication iv

Acknowledgement v

Abstract vi

Table of contents vii

CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Background of the study 1

1.2 Statement of the Problem 5

1.3 Objective of the study 6

1.4 Theoretical framework 6

1.5 Methodology of the study 8

1.6 Significance of the study 8

1.7 Research hypothesis 10

1.8 Scope/ limitation of the study 11

1.9 Definition of terms 11

1.10 Organization 12

Reference: 13

CHAPTER TWO

1.2 Literature review 15

Reference 39

CHAPTER THREE

3.1 Data Presentation 42

3.2 Data analyses 44

3.3 Testing of Hypotheses 45

CHAPTER FOUR

4.1 Implication of the study 51

4.2 conclusion 51

4.3 Recommendation 54

Bibliography 59

Questionnaire 64

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

The establishment of the Millennium Development Goals has set poverty reduction as a fundamental objective by development. In recent years, there has been an upsurge of interest in the impact of development on poverty. Poverty has increasingly become a major global issue, with halving extreme poverty by 2015 constituting the first, and perhaps the most critical, goal of the millennium development Goals (MDGS).

Since the 1980s, the poverty rate has been tending significantly downward in all regions of the world except in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The ratio of poverty for all less developed countries (LDCS) fell from 27.9% to 21.1%, but the ratio for Africa actually increased from 44.6% to 46.4% (Ravallion and Chen, 2004) Against this background it is not surprising that several recent papers argue that most African countries will not achieve the target of reducing poverty by half by 2015 (Fosu, 2008, UNDP 2003, Hammer and Naschold, 2000). In the last two year decades in Nigeria, there has been little or no project made in alleviating poverty despite the massive effort made and investment into many programmes established for that purpose. For instance, Canagarajah et al, (1997) reported increased level of poverty over the period spanning the 1980s and 1990s in Nigeria and inequality was established with an increased in the Gini coefficient from 38.1 percent in 1985 to 44.9 percent in 1992. Results of the 1996/97 National consumer survey showed that 56 percent of Nigerians live below the poverty line. In 1985 about 43 percent were below the figure at 34.1 percent at 1985 prices.

In 1992, 46.4 million Nigerians were said to be living in absolute poverty, out of which 80.2% or 37.7 million are in the rural areas (Ogwumike, 1996). The marginalization of the rural areas through urban-biased development policies is largely responsible for the high poverty incidence in the rural areas (Obi, 2007). These statistics indicate a worsening poverty situation in the country and a cause for concern (Okunmadewa, 1999).

The most frequently advocated manner to achieve such poverty reduction is through economic growth (Arsenio and Fuwa, 2003). Growth has therefore traditionally been considered the main engine for poverty reduction. As reported by the world bank (world Development indicator, 2002), real per-capital income in the developing world grew at an average rate of 2.3 percent per annum during the four decades between 1960 and 2000. This is a high growth rate by almost only standard. In order to achieve reduction in poverty, however, income growth has to be equitably distributed (Kalwij and Verschoor, 2007, World Bank 2006). Thus, the current thinking on how best to achieve poverty reduction, both economic growth and equity have to assume a central place in development strategies. Further, equity is seen not only as of intrinsic importance but also of instrumental importance but also of instrumental importance through its impact on the rate at which economic growth leads into poverty and income redistribution among the mass majority especially the rural dwellers.

What is more, evidences in the literature points to the increasing level of income inequality in developing countries including Nigeria, over the last two decades (e.g. Addison and Cornia, 2001; Kanbur and Instig, 1999) thus, to attain the objective of reducing poverty in Nigeria the pre-occupation of the government has been the growth of the economy as a pre-requisite for improved welfare. To this effect the government therefore indicated several economic reform measures which include economic stabilization measures of 1982, economic emergency measures in 1985 and structural adjustment programme (SAP) in 1986 components of SAP include market determined exchange and interest rates, liberalized financial sector, trade liberalization, commercialization and privatization of a number of enterprises (Aigbokhan, 2008) specialized agencies were also established to promote the objective of poverty reduction. These include Agricultural Development Programmes, Nigeria Agricultural, Cooperative and rural Development Bank, National Agricultural Insurance scheme, National Directorate of employment, National primary Health care Agency, people’s Basic education transit, mass education through universal basic education (UBE), Rural Electrification Schemes (RES) among others. The recent effort is based on the seven point agenda. Like earlier reform packages, the strategy considers economic growth as crucial to poverty reduction. The major issues of the seven point agenda include, power and energy food, security, wealth creation and transportations, others are land reforms, security and mass education.

Additionally, attention to the importance of income distribution in poverty reduction seems to be growing. Whether growth reduces poverty, and whether in particular growth can be deemed to be “pro-poor”, depends however, on the impact of growth on inequality feeds into poverty (Araar and Duclos, 2007). This paper is thus set to analyze the growth and inequalities of poverty, that is, by how much does poverty decline in percentage terms with a given percentage rise in economic growth and inequality in Nigeria. Technically, the growth elasticity of poverty is the rate of reduction in poverty resulting from a 1% increase in average income if, for example the growth elasticity of poverty is 2, then we would expect an increase in poverty average income of 2% per year to yield a reduction of 4% per year in poverty. Previous research has shown that the value of the growth elasticity is lower in countries with higher inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient (Ravllion, 2001, Hanmer and Naschold, 2000).

This means that policies which reduce inequality will increase the amount of poverty reduction associated with economic growth. This is not to say such policies will necessarily lead to more poverty reduction, as they may also lower the rate of economic growth. This is the well-known trade between growth policies and redistribution (Anderson, 2005).

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

The problems associated with poverty in Nigeria are multifaceted. Nigeria has no reason to be a poor country because of the vast economic potentials and human resources that it is endowed with, but why is Nigeria then lagging behind a country like liby a that relies only on oil for survival?

Self-sufficiency and self-reliance in food production has always been a daunting task for the policy makers in Nigeria, especially, after the ephemeral oil boom of the mid-1970s. Infact, this challenging situation is not confined to Nigeria. Akindele and Adebo (2005:55) note that food production is a major challenge that the new states have to contend with. A retrospective look at the Nigeria’s economic pattern shows that before the civil war the country relied on its agricultural base for its export earnings that represented “66 percent of the country’s foreign exchange, while it rose to 73.4 percent in 1968” when activities in the oil sector were paralyzed due to the country’s civil war (1967-1970).

(Richard, 1978). The importation of food further wrecked serious harocs on agriculture when full exploitation of oil resumed in earnest and consequently, “the government could think of no other alternative than to mortgage the country’s economic future to the good behaviour and concordance of the multi-nationals and the local capitalists” (Richard, 1978: 224) arguing along the same line, it is acknowledged that:

During the 1970s, Nigeria evolved from a poor agricultural economy into a relatively rich, oil dominated one. In 1969 the oil sector accounted for less than 3 percent of GDP and a modest US $370 million in exports (43 percent of total export), per capita income was only US $130, and more than half of GDP was generated in the agricultural sector. By 1980, the oil sector had come to account for nearly 30 percent of GDP, oil exports totaled us $25billio (96 percent of total exports) and per capita income exceed US %1.100. Following the discovering and exploration of oil, the economy experienced many symptoms of the “Dutch disease” (NCEMA cited in www.gdnet.org.).

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

It is therefore the purpose of this research to elucidate on poverty reduction, its features and operations of millennium development goal. The research work in tended to show how MDG can help in reduction of poverty in Nigeria. It also looked into theoretical framework of MDG’S on reduction of poverty in Nigeria.

i. To find out if MDG’S can help in poverty reduction.

ii. To determine the role of MDG’S in supply of food to the rural area.

iii. To know the extent of MDG’S in economic growth of Nigeria

1.4 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

One way to answer our research question is to compare countries with and without PRSPS in term of MDG progress. But, as the Appendix shows, nearly all low-income countries participate in (or have completed) the PRSP process since 1999. This precludes a statistically meaningful comparison with the few that do not. An alternative “treatment” approach is to compare countries before and after they enter the PRS process. About 60 countries are involved in the PRS process since 1999, a year later, in September 2000, the MDG’S were acknowledged by the UN member states. For these countries we performed an exhaustive search for data on the 48 indicators for the 18 targets connected to the eight MDG’S. Unfortunately limitations on useful data turn out to be such that we can research only three MDG’S these goals are (to achieve universal primary education), (to promote gender equality and empower women) and goal 4 to (reduce child mortality). After receiving many data collection options, for reasons of constituency and data availability we settled for this study on the world development indicators and the UN millennium development Goal indicator database for our MDG indicators and controls, we use data on school enrolment and completion rates, literacy, gender parity, health, income and urbanization. They are collected from by UNESCO, UNICEF and WHO sources.

In figure 3 below we compare the change in per-country average values of nine MDG indicators for 59 countries, before and after the country enter the PRS process. We look at the change in indicator values as a percentage of the pre-PRSP level for instance, for Albania which started the PRSP process on May 3, 2000 with submission of an I-PRSP, we compare MDG indicator values averaged over 1990-1999 to the 2000-2005 average (later data are were not available at the time of writing). The findings are encouraging on average, all indicators improved after countries entering the process, and all differences are statistically significant (P<O.OI) except for the indicator “share of women in non-agricultural wage employment”. This finding holds regardless of whether we compare country-level averages (as in the figure) or pool all observations. Nor are findings particularly sensitive to time period. If we start observation in 1995 instead of 1990, some findings disappear due to data scarcity but no results are overturned.

1.5 METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY

Having extensively reviewed existing and related literature in the last chapter, the research in this chapter seek to explain how he under takes the fact finding mission. Bearing in mind that the quality of a research work is influenced greatly of its methodology (Agbonifoh and Yomere 1999) the approach to this research work is quantitative, descriptive, and analytical.

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Agriculture is important to the world nay Africa and Africans. About 70% of the populace in Africa is involved in agriculture. It is the main stay of the economy of several African countries (and other countries of the world) contributing a high percentage of the GDP (Adewale, 2007). An estimated 1.2 million people are absolutely poor, living on less than US $1 per-day nearly twice that number live on less than US $2 per-day. Currently, about 800million people go hungry each day. Approximately 75% of the absolute poor in developing countries live in rural areas where they depend on agriculture for their livelihood therefore, reducing poverty in rural areas, and hunger in both rural and urban areas will depend heavily on the sustainable developments of agriculture through efforts in the agricultural sector, income of the rural poor must increase rapidly, and food production in the developing world must more than double over the next twenty years to keep up with population growth.

Agriculture policy papers has highlighted the critical role of agricultural productivity in stimulating agricultural growth and poverty reduction. Agriculture is strongly linked with the eradication of poverty and hunger which is the foremost goal of the MDG’S, having by 2015 the proportion of those suffering from extreme poverty and hunger. However, other MDGS have direct or indirect linkages with agriculture a more dynamic agricultural sector will change the assessment of economic returns to educating children compared to the returns from keeping children out of school to work in household agricultural enterprise. Also, in promoting gender equality and empowering women Agriculture empowers women for farmers directly and indirectly through reduction of child mortality, agriculture directly contributes by increasing diversity of food production and making more resources available to manage childhood illnesses. Agriculture directly helps improve material health through more diversified food production and higher quality diets and indirectly through increased incomes. It also help combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases through higher quality diets, and indirectly, by providing additional income that can be channeled to health services. Agricultural practices can be both direct cause of and importance solution to environmental degradation. More productive agricultural technologies allow the withdrawal of agriculture from sensitive environment developing a global partnership for development will help maintain the steady increase in agricultural trade, and significant increases in development assistance offered to the agricultural sector.

However, agriculture especially African agriculture is faced by several problems making the continent the most backward in agricultural production. The farmers are largely in the rural areas with small and fragmented plots having little or no contact with extension services and crucial information needed for production, processing and marketing farmers have no large knowledge of market prices and little access to input and output markets. Consequently yield are low, and income from agriculture leaves little for the farmer to turnover.

1.7 RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

1. Ho: There is no significance relationship between MDG’S and poverty reduction in Nigeria

Hi: There is a significance relationship between MDG’S and poverty reduction in Nigeria.

2. Ho: There is no significance relationship between MDG’S and Government intervention on poverty reduction in rural areas.

Hi: There is a significance relationship between MDG’S and Government intervention on poverty reduction in rural areas.

1.8 SCOPE/THE LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This study is within the Nigeria economy and millennium Development Goal and Poverty in Nigeria. Its benefit and constraints with particular reference to Nigeria.

This research cannot be regarded as being perfect and complete in all as some difficulties were enciphered in the course of study.

Financial resources of data collection and final production of this research also passed as a limiting factor to the research. Unavoidability of some vital material, refrained for the research as there material were considered to be highly confidential in some sourced place.

However, strenuous effects have been made to minimize the effect of the effective work.

1.9 DEFINITION OF TERMS

i. MDGS-Millennium Development Goals

ii. PRSP-Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers

iii. Development paradigms-Negative development of the economy.

iv. ODL- Open and distance learning

1.10 ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY

In this research project, it is made up of four chapters; chapter one contains, the general introduction, chapter two is the review of literature analysis. Chapter three is the presentation of the research methodology, and chapter four is summary.

REFERENCES

Addison, A, and Cornia G.A, 2001. Income Distribution policies for faster poverty reduction UNU-WIDER Discussion Paper No 2001/93 (September).

Aigbokhan B.E, 2008. Growth, Inequality and poverty in Nigeria economic commission for Africa ACGS/MPAMS Discussion Paper No 3 February

Araer, Abdulkarim and Duclos Jean Yves, 2007 Poverty and Inequality Components. A micro-framework. Working paper 07-35.

Arsenio M.B, and Fuwa N, 2003 “Growth, Inequality and Politics revisited a developing-country case”. Economics letters 79 (53-58).

Fosu, A, 2002 “Inequality and the growth poverty Nexus: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa”, paper presented at the CSAE conference on understanding and growth in SSA University of Oxford. Oxford

Fosu, A.K, 2008. “Inequality and the Growth Poverty Nexus: Specification Empirics using African Data, Applied economics letters, 15 (7): pp 453-56

Hanmer, L, and Naschold, F, 2000. Attaining the international Development targets will growth be enough? Development policy review 18, pp, 11-36.

Obi, B.O 2007. Fiscal policy and poverty alleviation some policy options for Nigeria Development of economics. University of Abuja Nigeria, AERC Research Paper 164 African economic research consortium, Nairabi, February 2007.

Ogwumike, F.O 1996. Structural Adjustment Programme and Poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. A report prepared for the network on African perspective on Structural Adjustment CODESRIA, Dakar.

Okunmadewa, F. 1999 “Overview of the measurement of poverty and inequality” centre for econometric and Allied research. University of Ibadan, Ibadan Nigeria.

Ravallion M, 2001 “Economic Growth, Income Inequality and Poverty, looking Beyond averages”, world development 29 pp 1803-15

UNDD 2003, MDG’S: A compact among nations to end poverty. Human Development report 2003, New York.

Akindele, S.T. and A. Adebo, 2004 “The political economy of River Basin and Rural development authority in Nigeria: A retrospective case study of Owena-River Basin and rural Development Authority (ORBRDA)”, Journal of Human Ecology, vol. 16, No1, pp, 55-62.

Richard, J.A, 1978, “Affluence and underdevelopment. The Nigeria experience”, journal of modern African studies, vol. 16, no, 2, pp. 221-239.Richard, J.A, 1978, “Affluence and underdevelopment. The Nigeria experience”, journal of modern African studies, vol. 16, no, 2, pp. 221-239.

CHAPTER TWO

2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW

Promotion of the MDG’S by the UN was preceded by the three “development decades” of the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, during which the emphasis was on structural economic and social change as the principal means (or as a definitions) of “development (Fukuda-Parr, 2004). A reconsideration of these approaches during the 1990s led to the 1996 adoption of the “international development targets’ by OECD countries, comprising seven quantifiable goals in the areas of economic wellbeing, social development and environmental sustainability and regeneration (Black and White, 2004) during the UN conferences in the late 1990s the MDGS were promoted as their successors, and adopted as such by 189 countries at the UN millennium summit in September 2000 and in the “millennium Declaration”. This committed its signatories to jointly reduce poverty and to build a secure and peaceful world conducive to Human development. The partnership between rich and poor countries was reaffirmed at the November conference on financing for Development in monetary. Mexico (UNDP, 2005, Clemens et al, 2004). In September 2005 the UN member states gathered at the 2005 world summit to review progress against the goals, and all members reaffirmed the millennium declaration. The eight MDGS are to have the proportion of people living in poverty and suffering from hunger, ensure gender equality in education, reduce under-five mortality by two-third and maternal mortality by three quarters, and to halt and reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases-all to be achieved between 1990 and 2015.

Proponents of the new MDGS paradigm include Fukuda-Parr (2004) who argues that, in comparison to earlier approaches, they put human development at the centre of the global development agenda, provide a framework for accountability, and address not only development outcomes but also inputs from rich countries, thus forming a compact that holds both rich and poor governments accountable. Likewise Devarajan et al (2002) favour the MDGS for their results orientation, emphasis on quantitative analysis, and their role in donor coordination.

A critical assessment is by Clemens et al (2004), who use historical evidence to argue that many of the MDGS are unrealistic, foster an excessive focus on donor resources, and post a risk of ‘development disillusion’ among the public if their realization fails. White (2004) notes inconsistencies in the MDG time frame-with most goals for 2015 but some for 2005-and observers that several envisaged MDG ‘outputs’ are not the products of investment, and not all outcomes are measures of welfare. This precludes valid performance monitory and taking the step necessary to achieve the outcomes. White also notes definitional defects. Access to reproduce health is not measured, the proxy for contraceptive prevalence is problematic, the child survival terminology is flawed demographically. Agenor et al (2006) address this problems by proposing a macroeconomic monitoring framework that explicitly connects MDG indicators to policies such as aid and debt relief, and apply it empirically to Sub-Saharan Africa. James (2006) points to evidence showing only loose links between the goals and their ultimate impacts on human functioning such as gender equality or freedom from illness. Vandermoortele (2004) questions the feasibility of the MDGS project include its monitoring in a view of progress towards the MDGS during the 1990s he funds an uneven pattern across regions and countries and between different socio economic groups within countries. This highlights the possibility of global success masking widespread local failure. He also funds evidence that disadvantages groups are often by passed by ‘average’ progress that is the cheapest way to satisfy MDG standard, but this need not be pro-poor.

Clemens et al (2004) consider the alternative interpretations of MDGS. One is to take the specific goals of the MDGS literally and to estimate as the amount of aid needed to reach these goals, as in Anderson and Waddington (2007). This view implies that a big push of aid can accelerate progress beyond historical norms to meet the MDGS: the question is just how much and Sachs (e.g., 2005) is its best known proponent. A second understanding of the MDGS is that global are a symbol of the outcomes towards which the development community should strive, and where new aid flows are one of several necessary conditions for progress on development indicators. This second interpretation takes the MDGS as a vision, not a practical target either way, Roberts (2005) notes that the MDGS will be most helpful in achieving poverty reduction if they are well-chosen in the sense of being: familiar to the main actors and stakeholders, unambiguous and readily monitored.

In order to progress towards the Goals, developing country governments formulate national poverty reduction strategies, in which MDGS are translated into national medium term goals, development strategies and matching policies. For over sixty of the world’s poorest countries, these strategies now take the form of a poverty reduction strategy documents produced in Uganda and Tanzania in the late 1990s, and by the world bank’s comprehensive Development framework approach originally applied only to countries in the Highly indebted poor country (HIPC) programme PRS papers have now become among the most important documents for national planning and communicating priorities to development partners (Roberts, 2005, Swallow, 2005). McGee and Brock (2001) argue that the adoption of the PRSP framework was partly a responsible to critiques on the structural adjustment model, partly a concession to organizations campaigning for debt forgiveness, and also provided the Washington institution with a means to increase and diversify the conditions attached to new lending. The UN also strongly supported the PRSP from the start as a vehicle through which country policies, programmes, and resource requirements are linked to the MDGS. The PRSP is viewed as fostering ownership of poverty reduction strategies as it is rooted in national processes of policy dialogue and accountability (world bank and IMF 2004 Booth and Lucas, 2004). Linkages between PRSPS and MDGS .

A PRSP describe the macroeconomic structural and social policies and programmes that a country will pursue over several years to promote broad based growth and reduce poverty, as well as external financing needs and the associated sources of financing (IMF, 2005). The conceptual framework provided by a PRSP aims to integrate poverty analysis, public policy, macroeconomic policies, budgetary processes and monitoring systems and attempts to do so in a participatory way. PRSPS are expected to be based on country-owned development plans and to reflect a consensus of vies on national priorities.

Unlike the MDGS format, there is no required set of indicators or goals that must be included in a PRSP, as these are country-specific nor is there a PRSP blueprint. But the IMF (2006) formulates as five core principles that the PRSPS approaches should be country-driven (promoting national ownership of strategies through broad-based participation of civil society). Result oriented and particularly focused on outcomes that will benefit the poor, comprehensive in recognizing the multidimensional nature of poverty, partnership oriented, involving coordinated participation of development partners (government, domestic stakeholders, and external donors) and based on a long-term perspective for poverty reduction. It is unclear how important these principles really are for poverty reduction. Canagrajah and Van Diesen (2006) discuss how Uganda has combined excellent progress in poverty reduction with relative neglect of PRSP principles.

According to Caillods and Haclak (2004), the dimensions of the PRSPS shared by most countries (both HIPC and non-HIPC) are that they are sustained macroeconomic growth frameworks based on increasing the strength of public sectors, improving fiscal revenues boosting the private sector, expanding sectors of comparative advantage for the country, promoting rural development and developing infrastructural. The framework also emphasizes the development of economic activities that benefit the labour productivity of the poor, and which are concentrated in poor regions. Other key PRSP ingredients are specifics on human development (mostly with explicit reference to health and education) and on institutional development and good governance (including capacity building of the public and private sectors).

There are several steps in the PRS process. The majority of countries start the PRS process with an interim PRSP (1-PRSP), which, once approved, gives access to debt relief under the HIPC initiative (IMF, 2006). An (1-PRSP) outlines a country’s existing poverty reduction strategy and a ‘roadmap’ to a full PRSP, expected to be completed within about 12 months of an 1-PRSP if a country requires more than a year between its 1-PRSP and full PRSP, ‘PRSP preparation status reports need to be submitted in order to qualify for continued assistance (World bank, 2005) final approval of a PRSP is by the boards of the world bank and IMF which, jointly with national ministries of finance, have the greatest say in the outcome of the process by which PRSP are developed (Calliods and Hallak, 2004). Finally, once the full PRSP has come into effect, it is followed up by PRS progress reports after three or four years continues produce an update PRSP. Each of the above documents is screened by World Bank and IMF staff, and assessed in joint staff Advisory notes CJSA, the name was changed from joint staff Assessments in 2005), which identify priority areas to strengthening the poverty reduction strategy. These also explicitly link IMF and World Bank lending to PRSP strategy and priorities.

In order to make our PRSP data compatible with MD of assessment data we collected data on the state of the PRSP process as of early 2006. By January 2006, 49 full PRSPS had been sent for approval to IMF Executive Board, and an additional to countries had completed in PRSPS (Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo DR, Republic of Congo, Cote d’ Ivore, Dominica, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Macedonia and Uzbekistan) several countries are in the process of revising their original strategies and Burkina Faso, Nicaragua, Uganda and Vietnam have already submitted their second PRSP. Eleven more countries have produced interim strategies and ten have initiated processes that could result in PRSP (world bank, IMF 2005). These are some countries which immediately submitted a PRSP (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Nigeria, Timorleste, Bhutan, Nepal and Srilanka).

Many observers argue in general terms for the benefits that PRSPS bring but little specific evidence has been marshaled to date Booth (2003) finds evidence that in some countries, PRSPS have increased awareness and commitment within public administration and among policy makers of poverty reduction, policies and objectives, improved the quality of poverty reduction strategies, and invited a substantial transformation of the aid relationship. Swallow (2005) documents that analysts generally agree that PRSP have placed poverty reduction at the centre of national planning processes, and that PRS processes have generally been more transparent and participatory than other national planning processes.

Two general concerns regarding the PRSP are the interim and finalized PRS documents give relatively low priority to sectors that many development specialists regard as important for reducing poverty-agriculture, human health, environmental conservation and water supply and the PRSPS are implemented in a top-down, technocratic manner at a time when most governments are decentralizing administration and devolving authority to lower levels of administration (Van der Moortele, 2004) Roberts (2005) finds PRSPS are at their most powerful where there are reforms in budget management which reinforce the primacy in policy and resource allocation of the ministry of finance, which emphasize performance and results, and which crystallize these in medium term expenditure frameworks Dijkstra (2005) examines the experience of Bolivia, Honduras and Nicaragua, and find no clear evidence that the PRS process has improved and effectiveness in these HIPCS Oxfan (2004) argues that, while PRSP have been a step forward, the promise of the PRSPS contribution to poverty reduction remains largely unfulfilled (although experiences vary greatly from country to country). In an analysis of the progress in implementation of the PRSPS World Bank and IMF (2004) likewise find much variation across countries as well within individual countries strategies. They also find that countries have made good progress in addressing the more straightforward challenges inherent in the approach. Poverty analysis is generally good, strategies recognize the importance of growth and macroeconomics stability, indicators lists are being rationalized, and sectoral coverage is broadening but the challenges that remain are technically difficult and institutionally complex for example, the analysis of the sources of growth and its distributional impact remains relatively weak. Countries were also experienced difficulties in marrying their aspirations for the future with the resource and capacity constraints of the present Barbore and Sharkey (2005) discuss for 50 countries how the PRS process has had its major impact in the area of policy processes, but not on participatory governance in those processes.

THE MDGS AND THE ERADICATION OF EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER IN NIGERIA

Poverty pervades the Nigeria population. Poverty is still noticeable and its eradication is a daunting task for the government. The eradication of poverty is a significant objective in policy formulation and implementation in the emancipation of human being (UNDP, 2004) and as such, it should be a priority in decision making for the Nigerian government. The 2006 MDGS report statistics shows that “35% of the population lives in extreme poverty while much as 54% are poor in relative terms. Almost 52% on less than a dollar a day” (NPC, 2007). In general, poverty is more perversive in the north than in the south of Nigeria. For example, the poverty rate is 67.3% in the north east zone, 62.9% in north west, 62.3% in north central. 51% in the south-south, 42% in the south west, and 34% in the South east (NPC, 2007). Expectedly, this situation is further compounded by the increase in the country’s population, thus resulting in an increase in the growing number of the poor that rose “from 39 million in 1992 to 69 million in 2004” (NPC, 2007). Moreover, the incidence of poverty is more acute in the rural than in the urban areas (UN, 2004). This situation does not come as a surprise due to hardships and lack of infrastructural, access to portable water and good medical attention that rural dwellers have to contend with poverty has also taken an alarming dimension as the population of the urban poor is fast increasing due to the rapid growth of the population as well as the rural exodus to urban centers where rural migrants live in deplorable conditions, in addition to intra-urban and peri-urban migration (Odulana and Olomajeye, 1999; Osinubi, 2003) migration is also partly due to serious lack of job opportunities in the rural areas. Moreover, the high level of unemployment has immensely contributed to poverty in Nigeria the minister of labour, Mr. Adetokunbo Kayode, has himself underlined the state of the prevalence of unemployment in the country by relying on the world bank figure of 40 million of unemployed Nigerians as he stated that “unemployment has assumed a different and worrisome dimension” (The Guardian, 2009a). A problem often associated with poverty in Nigeria is child labour, which is widespread in the rural areas and the urban centres. In the rural areas of the country children are habitually used on farms whereas they are found engaged in nefarious activities in urban centres. Successive governments have napped out strategies to fight, reduce, or eradicate poverty. However, poverty continues to, not only defy solutions, but escalating. Another corollary poverty in Nigeria is malnutrition. In fact, “(m)alnutrition is a silent emergency in Nigeria among children under age five, 29 percent are underweight nearly 3 million children are suffering from chronic malnutrition and more than 1 million from stunting (UNICEF, 2009) malnutrition in the country is due partly to a high rate of food insecurity which is still a nagging experience. The case study of food insecurity in the cities of Lagos and Ibadan (the most urbanized cities of Nigeria) showed that there is “a high prevalence of 70% to be food insecure” (Ajani, Adebukola, and Oyindamu, 2006:66) to be sure, poverty has also its ramification in health. To health sector has been in constant decay since the 1980s. Poverty in conjunction with inadequate health policy have not only critically affected the improvement in health but also undermine the attainment of the MDGS goals in that area. The spate of disease is still serious. For example the UNICEF executive Director, Ms, Ann Veneman acknowledged the emergency in child health care. In her words, more children die in Nigeria than any other country in Africa, largely from preventable diseases (UNICEF, 2009).

A catalyst of development that has not fared well, especially since the introduction of SAP is education. It is a know fact that education plays a fundamental role in the progress of any nation. Ibidapo Obe (2007: 1) states that.

Education is a major tool for national socio economic development and for individual socio economic empowerment and poverty reduction. The educational system is vital, because it produces the personnel that is require to function in various facets of natural life and development process.

Indicators	1990	196	2004	2005	2015	Progress
Percentage of population living in relative poverty	431992	66	57	342004	21	Slow
Percentage of population living in extreme poverty consuming 2,900 colonies or lower daily	-	-	35	352004	-	Unsufficeint data
Percentage of underweight children (under five)	36	31	30	302004	18	Slow

Source: National Bureau of statistics, 2005, world bank, Development indicators, cited in UNDP, 2004.

Bases on the above analysis, it is apparent that the reduction and/or eradication of poverty is a sinequa non to attain the other MDGS.

Putting the attainment of these goals in the Nigeria context, it is clear that they are real challenge. Flowing form our discussion on the MDGS above, the Nigerian government is obviously overwhelmed by the tasks. The positive social impacts that the implementation of the MDGS can make in the lives of Nigerians were considered by the international financial institutions (IFIS) in giving debt relief to Nigeria. So far, the Nigeria government score sheet is unimpressive to the extent that the house of representatives has threatened to stop financial allocation to any ministry or parastal that has failed to implement the MDGS (the vanguard 2009). The real challenge that militates against the realization of the MDGS is those of policy implementation because adequate budgetary allocations have been made by the government. Furthermore, the implementation of MDGS has been characterized by deeply entrenched corruption and gross inefficiency, and wastefulness. For example, the senate report on MDGS described the MDGS office as a “cesspool of corruption and shady deals” (The Guardian 2009b) corruption has been a major problem because “it makes the country unattractive to investors as it raises the cost and risk of doing business in the country (UNDP 2004). In addition, there is the problem of duplication of projects in the same areas by the federal government and multilateral donor agencies. Even the senior special assistant to President Yar’Adua, Hajea Amina Azzubair is skeptical about the possibilities of Nigeria meeting the MDGS by 2015 in spite of the huge finding which amounts to N320 billion deducted from the debt relief gain (DRG) devoted to MDGS projects all over Nigeria (Nwokeoma, 2009). Although analysts believe that Nigeria can overcome the odds and achieve the MDGS in the areas of universal primary education, the fight against the scourge of HIV/AIDS, and improve on the sustainability of its environment, and partner in global development, the fact still remains that reduction of child and maternal mortality, as well as lessening poverty (NPC, 2007). From the foregoing discussions, it is apparent that Nigeria is inundated with poverty and economic underdevelopment which, coupled with poor administration, lack of political will, etc have made its yearning towards achieving the MDGS in 2015 very unrealistic, then, what can Nigeria do to overcome these problems? Put differently what are the ways out of the present predicaments to realizing the ideals and lofty goals of the MDGS by 2015? Let it be sufficient resources here stated that despite its (Nigeria) present challenges to the realization of the goals, the country has sufficient resources needed to meet the MDGS target by 2015 but what is of utmost importance and require for this is to materialize is for the country’s leadership to overhaul its conceptualization and implementation of policies and programmes to meet the 2015 targets. In specific terms, we recommend the followings:

Fist, government should establish credible and efficient institutions for proper public resource management, while the existing ones need to be strengthened. The imperative of this endeavour is to ensure efficient or better still, proper utilization of public resources (public goods) with the overall objective of preventing, or at least, minimizing waste and inefficiencies of the previous years the country witnessed especially under military rule (1983-1999). In addendum, this institutional re-engineering/restructuring, so to say, we give the opportunity to ensuring due process, diligence, accountability, etc. It is important to state here the Nigerian government, especially under the present civilian administration has embarked on the endeavour. One good example of this initiative to meet the MDGS targets under the Obasanjo’s administration (May 1999-May 2007) is the creation of the oversight of public expenditure in Nigeria (OPEN). OPEN is established with the oversight functions of monitoring the debt relief Gains (DRGS) and this could serve as a model for two major reasons. First, OPEN’S leaders is participatory, transparent, and involves government civil society partnership in that it recognizes and includes the participation of both private and public sector (PPP). Second, the OPEN mechanism was established to track resources. Despite the exemplary model provided by OPEN, we should be very continuous here because development is very broad in definition and it entails a lot of indices that transcend the allocation of DRGS to some ministries and parastatals. This is because, according to Igbuzor (2006) “development require growth and structural change, some measures of distributive equity, modernization in social and cultural attitudes, a degree of political transformation and stability, an improvement in health and education so that population growth stabilizes, and an increase in urban living and employment”.

Furthermore, establishing credible and efficient institutions are complemented with, or go side by side with, transparency and accountability of these institutions, and the entrenchment of good governance and the rule of law lack of accountability and transparency have been major challenges of development in Nigeria, especially with the advent of military rule. The country’s financial experts have a great role to play in this regard.

At another level, the Nigerian authority should embark on pragmatic socio-economic policy reform for the interests of all and sundry. These reforms should address the problem of risking cost of doing business in the country inefficiency, lack of transparency and accountability, macroeconomic stabilization. Also to be addressed by such policy reforms are the problems associated with infrastructure, health, etc and reduce the risk of uncertainties characterized with business environment in Nigeria, though, the Obasanjo’s government economic reform (NEEDS) is commendable with the present Yar’Adua’s governments seven point agenda is in its embryonic stage, more of these reforms are needed with strong political will and sincerity of purpose to achieve the stated goals. Also important is that such economic policy reforms should be pro-poor growth oriented. It is equally necessary to promote sound policy to increase productivity in the agricultural sector (NPC, 2007) though it is acknowledged that the Nigeria economy recorded some appreciable growth rate in recent years (especially under the Obasanjo’s presidency) but it should be realized that such economic growth can only be sustainable and achieving the MDGS targets, if and only if, such growth is pro-poor what this connotes is that economic growth should leads to poverty alleviation and betterment of the lots of ordinary Nigerians (i.e. the masses). The essence of the pro-poor economic growth could be deciphered in president Obasanjo’s statement from the NEEDS document when he said we must not continue to stress the pursuit of a high growth rate in statistical terms and fail to reduce the social and economic deprivation of a substantial member and group of our people, we must not absolutely purse wealth and growth at the expense of inner wellbeing, a satisfaction, fulfillment, and contentment of human being (see federal government of Nigeria, 2004).

Another important area that Nigeria needs to invest its energy on to meet the MDGS target is to reinforce its collaboration (i.e. partnership) with development partners. Though, we have argue earlier that Nigeria is blessed with human and material resources, but it still need additional external assistance to make adequate progress towards achieving the MDGS. According to the 2005 world bank and the UK department for international development’s country strategy partnership strategy’s document, it is estimated that Nigeria would require external financing of about $6.4 billion annually between 2005 and 2008. It is argued that Nigeria received during this period only $2 per capita in ODA which is marginal compare to the average of Africa of $28 per capita. This is why Nigeria is been regarded as been highly under aided. Furthermore partnership with development partners which will also evolve interaction between government, public sector and private sector at the external environment, thus, this will “require transformists from the public sector, civil society, media and public sector to build a critical movement of people advocating for and implementing charge (Igbuzor 2008). One of the development facing Nigeria today is how to reduce the high poverty level prevailing among her population at the centre of the challenge is how the country will sustainably feed her over 140 million people. However, observer’s opinions differ about the efficacy of foreign and in fast tracking the process. It is noted that a prominent argument for foreign and is that it tends to promote reduction of poverty. The importance of the development challenge of poverty reduction and hunger is aptly demonstrated as the number one goal of the eight millennium development Goals (MDGS).

In examining the issues of poverty reduction and inequality, some studies focus on either income or non-income determinants. There is no doubt that a combination of both determinants may produce better results. Also, in examining foreign aid in relation to poverty level, most studies regress poverty on total aid. We like to argue that different types of foreign aid will likely produce different results. In this study we use both the income and non-income determinants of poverty and account for the effects of different types of aid on poverty indicators.

Furthermore, studies have examined the importance of foreign aid in food supply especially in countries where food crises is prevalent notably the low income countries the sub-Saharan Africa. However, not much has been done in the area of investigating the relationships among the three concepts: foreign aid, food supply and poverty reduction in Nigeria in this regard, some questions have been probing the intellectual curiosity of some observers. Does availability of foreign and discourages or encourages domestic production of food? Does increase in food production reduces or increase poverty level? Does foreign aid leads to decrease or increase in poverty level? This study attempts to provide answers to the above questions using data from Nigeria.

Economic growth refers to sustained increase in gross domestic product of a country with a view to reducing poverty, inequality and unemployment (Todaro, 1982) the challenges of economic growth in a country are better appreciated if we ask the question about what has been happening to poverty, inequality and unemployment? In seers view (see seers, 1969) if all the three have been reducing, some real development has taken place. If other wise, no development has taken place even if per capita income doubles.

According to one world a united kingdom based agency (http//.uk.oneworld.net, accessed on 10^th June 2008) saddled with the responsibilities of monitoring sustainable development and human right issues, as at June 2008 about 10 million hunger related deaths were recorded every year, with half of them being children. The implication from this is that the world has, might be failing to achieve food security. Also about 850million people remain entrapped in the spiral of hardship that hunger imposes. The level of worry about the above figures is better appreciated if considered against the backdrop that they are recorded amidst the riches of the 21^th century. Infact, the recent doubling of world food prices has transformed food insecurity from a difficult developmental challenge into an emergency.

Heller and Gupta (2002) express worry about the call by international community that to enable developing countries to achieve the MDGS by 2015, there should be increase in foreign aid to 0.7 percent of industrialized countries GNP from 0.24 percent of GNP at present. Nevertheless, they argue that a large increase in aid flows could pose a number of challenges for the poorest countries for example, if the industries world is to be successful meeting its ODA targets, financial aid will increase to about $175 billion, slightly more than three times current level. To ensure that enhanced ODA is used efficiently in the fight against global poverty. They argue that donors need to examine closely the different possible approaches it could take in deciding how to allocate aid both among countries and among complementary global poverty reduction programmes.

Tchane, (2005) argue that making significant progress toward achieving the MDGS remains a major focus of the international community, and larger and more effective and flows will be a critical component in reaching the MDGS, this suggests that controversy exists on the objectives of aid, most notably the urgency of reducing poverty. However, for both donors and macro economic policy makers in the aid-receiving countries these objective raise a number of critical questions on the macroeconomic management of aid.

Masud and Joncheva (2005) assess the effectiveness of foreign aid in reducing poverty through its impact on human development indicators and whether foreign aid reduces government efforts in achieving developmental goals. They use a data set of both bilateral and NGO aid flows. Their results shows that NGO aid reduces infact mortality and does so more effectively than official bilateral aid. They also find that impact on illiteracy is less significant while mixed evidence of a substitution effect exists for whether foreign aid reduces government efforts in achieving developmental goals.

Salop et al (2007) evaluates in the context of continuing debate about the role of the IMF in aid to low income countries, what, and how well, the IMF has done on aid to sub-Saharan Africa. The study focuses on IMF policy and practice in operations supported by the poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) being the IMF’S main instrument for operational work in low-income countries during the 199-2005 review periods. The study finds the PRGF supported macroeconomic policies generally accommodate the use of incremental aid in countries whose recent policies have led to high stocks of reserves and low inflation, in other countries addiction aids are programmed to be saved to increase reserves or to retire domestic debt. It also find that IMF communications on aid and poverty reduction have contributed to the external impression that the IMF committed to do more on aid mobilization and poverty reduction analysis.

Diouf (2007) investigates the determinants of inflation in Mali between 1979 and 2006, and argues that variations in Mali’s consumer price index (CPI) are driven by changed in food prices, with food item accounting for 50 percent or the CPI. It also finds that where households at the bottom quintile of the income distribution spend more than 80 percent of their income on food, controlling food price inflation may greatly reduce poverty. When food price inflation is high, the cost of food leaves few resources for expenditures like health and education. In the extreme case, high food price inflations leads to hunger. Similarly, high non-food price inflation reduces real money balances and the income that can be spent on food again, leading to food insecurity. The study concludes that understanding the determinants of inflation is important in designing policies that can improve food security in Mali.

Usman and Lemo (2007) examines the seven point agenda of the incumbent civilian administration in Nigeria, designed to address the fundamental issues of development with a view to ensuring that ongoing reforms are accelerated. The agenda includes: power and energy, food security and Agriculture. Wealth creation and employment, mass Transportation, land reforms, security and qualitative and functional education. On food security and agriculture it is argue that the food security and agriculture. Policy are linked with the need to address the MDFG are eradication of extreme poverty and hunger. The emphasis is on the development of modern technology and a financial framework for research, production and development of agricultural inputs which will deliver a 5-10 increase in yield and production.

Finally, the debate on the definition and measurement of poverty remains inconclusive (see Ravallion, 1996 and Laderchi et al, 2003). Most studies on poverty rely on monetary poverty measures such as the headcount index. However, it has been argued that possessing an increased income does not necessarily mean an improvement in the wellbeing of people especially. If this increased income does not translate to access to basic necessities of life.

Also, despite the fact that monetary measures simple, studies have shown that it is deficient (see Ravllion, 1996). Ravallion argues that since poverty if multi-faceted multiple indicators are necessary including measures of distribution of real expenditure per adult, access to non-market goods like health and education, distribution within households and the personal characteristics of the poor. Thus, its measure poverty effectively there is the need to go beyond money metric measures. It is necessary to employ multidimensional approach in which expenditure on market goods is placed side by side with “non-income” goods and indicators of intra-household distribution, understand its cause more so that better policies that can fight it can be formulated.

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CHAPTER THREE

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

3.1 DATA PRESENTATION

The concern of this chapter is to analysis the data collected in line with the hypothesis already drawn and discuss the result obtained.

After the questionnaires were collected, and the required data obtained, the following statistical techniques were then used to analyze the numerous response. These are the percentages, frequency distribution tabled were used to analyze the independent personal data result. Mean ordinal audit was also adopted, to establish the perception of the respondents.

Table 1: Questionnaires Distribution

No of questionnaires	Number	% of no returned
150	140	93.3

Research survey (2011)

A sources; total of 150 copies of the questionnaires were served while 140 copies wee returned making the achievement of 93.3%.

Table II: Distribution among Various Ethnics

	No of questionnaires	No return	%
Among the leaders	50	43	30.1
Among the citizens	100	97	69.2
Total	150	140	100